Charles Kenny

What Does the Eastern European Growth Experience Tell Us About the Policy and Convergence Debates?

What Does the Eastern European Growth Experience Tell Us About the Policy and Convergence Debates? is an unpublished paper. While the human costs of communism in Eastern Europe were incalculably large, the impact on regional income growth may have been comparatively minor. Despite common perceptions of the efficacy of communism as a system for promoting growth, it appears that the region’s performance was better than any developing country group with the exception of the Asian miracle countries. The region would have grown faster if it had been part of a broader European ‘convergence club,’ however, and the paper discusses how much communism is to be blamed for Eastern Europe not being part of such a grouping –suggesting that this depends on the country.  The paper concludes with a look at what these results might mean for the growth and convergence debates.

Crisis? What Crisis?

Crisis? What Crisis? is an unpublished short paper. It asks if a sense of despair regarding the state of development worldwide can be justified, or if the record suggests grounds for greater optimism.

A Century of the Infant Mortality Revolution

A Century of the Infant Mortality Revolution is an unpublished paper.  There has been rapid and widespread progress in reducing infant mortality over the last 100 years. In 1900, there was only one country worldwide where we know that infant mortality was below ten percent. A century later, out of the 187 countries for which we have data, only nineteen had an infant mortality rate of above ten percent.  Better health outcomes have been achieved at lower incomes to the extent that income growth appears to be a minor factor in determining the course of the infant health transition.  Instead, factors related to global progress appear to have been key –probably related to the spread of knowledge and cheap technologies.  Only state collapse or health shocks as dramatic as the AIDS epidemic appear powerful enough to considerably slow this rate of progress.

There’s More to Life than Money

There’s More to Life than Money: Exploring the Levels/Growth Paradox in Income and Health is forthcoming in the Journal of International Development.  It discusses historical and recent cross-country evidence relating income to measures of health.  After a review of the literature on income and the quality of life, the paper looks at long-term historical evidence on the link between income change and health indicators.  Using data on life expectancy, infant mortality and income for a small subset of largely wealthy countries over the 1913-1999 period, the paper examines correlations between income and health at period start and end as well as using the growth of the variables.  Using a larger set of data over the period 1975-2000, the paper repeats these tests, as well as looking for any evidence of a larger impact of income when entered in conjunction with other potential determinants of quality of life improvement, when different data is used or the sample is split.  Results suggest a strong cross-country link between income and health and considerable evidence of global improvements over time, but a comparatively weak relationship between improvements in income and improvements in health, even over the very long term.  The paper discusses a model based on technology and institutions that might account for such results as well as some preliminary evidence in favor of such a model.

The Global Expansion of Primary Education

The Global Expansion of Primary Education is an unpublished short paper.  In 1830, near-universal primary education was limited to a few states in the United States, and the great majority of the World’s children received no formal education at all. By 1870, somewhere between 12 and 23 percent of the World’s children aged 5-14 were enrolled in a school, and by 1950 this figure had increased to 47 percent. By 2002, global net primary enrollment was around 87 percent, with a gross enrollment ratio of around 100 percent. For countries in Western Europe and Western offshoots including the US and Canada, the period of rapid growth began as early as the 1800s, while for much of the rest of the World, it would take at least another 100-150 years to see the takeoff towards universal primary education. This paper discusses the timing and speed of the transition around the World and discusses the causal mechanisms behind the growth to global ubiquity of basic education.

ICT: Promises, Opportunities and Dangers for the Rural Future

ICT: Promises, Opportunities and Dangers for the Rural Future is for the Rural Futures conference in Plymouth, UK in March.  The paper briefly reviews the evidence regarding the rapid rollout of rural ICT access worldwide, and the powerful tools that access can unleash.  At the same time, it suggests the limits to the ICT revolution in rural areas especially in poor countries, and points to the limited evidence that ICT will reverse forces of agglomeration favouring the concentration of people and productivity in urban areas.  It concludes by suggesting the marginal role for ICT-based policymaking in regional development strategies.