Charles Kenny

Is Anywhere Stuck in a Malthusian Trap?

Is Anywhere Stuck in a Malthusian Trap? is an unpublished short paper.  The key features of the Malthusian model are that (i) income determines population growth, with rising wages increasing survival rates and (ii) there is a vital factor of production (land) which is fixed, implying decreased returns to scale for all other factors. The equilibrium state in such a model is a population living on subsistence incomes. The analysis in this paper suggests that (i) the link between income and population growth is (almost) everywhere broken and (ii) there is little evidence of declining returns to scale because of constraints imposed by land carrying capacity at the macro level anywhere. Population dynamics are being driven by non-income factors in a manner that is reducing population growth rates everywhere. At the same time, output is increasing everywhere, in a manner inconsistent with significantly declining returns to scale based on land being a vital factor of production.

Construction, Corruption and Developing Countries

Construction, Corruption and Developing Countries was published as a working paper in June, 2007.  The construction industry accounts for about one-third of gross capital formation. Governments have major roles as clients, regulators, and owners of construction companies. The industry is consistently ranked as one of the most corrupt: large payments to gain or alter contracts and circumvent regulations are common. The impact of corruption goes beyond bribe payments to poor quality construction of infrastructure with low economic returns alongside low funding for maintenance-and this is where the major impact of corruption is felt. Regulation of the sector is necessary, but simplicity, transparency, enforcement, and a focus on the outcomes of poor construction are likely to have a larger impact than voluminous but poorly enforced regulation of the construction process. Where government is the client, attempts to counter corruption need to begin at the level of planning and budgeting. Output-based and community-driven approaches show some promise as tools to reduce corruption. At the same time they will need to be complimented by a range of other interventions including publication of procurement documents, independent and community oversight, physical audit, and public-private anticorruption partnerships.

Internet Governance on a Dollar a Day

Internet Governance on a Dollar a Day  is forthcoming in Information Polity.  Globally, around one billion people live on a dollar a day. About 44 percent –nearly half-- of the World’s population lives on less than two dollars a day. This paper examines the importance of "Internet governance" to such people. Arguments over generic top-level domain names might seem of somewhat esoteric interest to the subsistence farmer. Indeed, if Internet governance is defined in the narrow sense of the management of TLDs (Top Level Domains) and root zone files, it is surely of little importance to poor people. However, given the nature both of technology and of poor people’s demands for information and communication, a broader definition of Internet governance does spill over into issues of importance to all, including the world’s poorest. Furthermore, thinking in terms of "information governance" may make more sense in an increasingly converged sector, and issues of information governance are of undoubted importance to poor people. In turn, this suggests priorities for governments attempting to improve the lives of the poor through increasing information flows.

Young People and ICTs in Developing Countries

Young People and ICTs in Developing Countries  is forthcoming in Information Technology for Development.  The paper is co-authored with Naomi Halewood.  Young people are often ‘first adopters’ of new technologies, and this appears to be the case with ICTs.  Evidence from the developing world suggests that young people have widespread access to broadcast technologies and the telephone, but more limited access to the Internet.  And even amongst young people, Internet use lags considerably behind Internet access.  ICTs, and in particular the Internet, provide opportunities for employment, but it should be noted that there are limits to the economic impact of the Internet in developing countries.  Broadcast technologies can be particularly useful tool in both formal and continuing education, the Internet may have a significant role in vocational and further education.  There are potential social costs of ICT use amongst young people, but these can be mitigated.  Youth-specific policy recommendations focus on the greater use of ICTs in education and content control.